- ETH/BTC correlation remains elevated at 0.78 (7-day rolling)
- DeFi TVL down -12% WoW to $47.2B, signaling risk-off sentiment
- Ethereum daily active addresses: 421K (-8% vs 30-day MA)
- Perpetual funding rates neutral at +0.003% across major venues
- Options flow shows 25-delta skew favoring puts through June expiry
Traditional markets showing defensive rotation with VIX touching 28.4. Crypto correlation to QQQ strengthened to 0.89, highest since March. Fed dot plot expectations shifting hawkish, pressuring risk assets. Bitcoin on-chain metrics 2026 forward curves pricing in continued institutional accumulation despite near-term headwinds.
- BTC: Support cluster $28,200-28,800, resistance at $31,500
- ETH: Critical support $1,850, upside capped at $2,100
- Monitor May 15 CPI print and upcoming FOMC minutes
- Ethereum Shanghai upgrade anniversary creating technical overhead
- Weekly options expiry Friday with $30K BTC max pain
Elevated leverage ratios across perpetual markets suggest fragility. Retail discussion volume increasing while smart money flows remain muted. Regulatory uncertainty in EU markets post-MiCA implementation. DeFi protocol risks persist with recent exploit uptick (+40% vs Q1). Macro correlation suggests limited crypto-specific safe havens during traditional market stress.
#CryptoAnalysis #OnChainData #RiskManagement